Click here for my regular blog--new entries daily.
Click here for my Marketocracy "fund."
I am neither a permabull nor a permabear.
My goal: beat the S&P500 by 30 points a year. Bold? You betcha.
I tend towards GARP investing--Growth At a Reasonable Price.
Currently, I believe a lot in silver, and tend to hold silver instead of cash positions. When I have a lot of silver, it is because I am staying away from regular stocks.
I will be updating once a day when the market is open, and tracking the account on an NAV basis, so that comparisons can be made with the S&P500 and other indices.
None of what I write can be construed as advice for anyone else, though I hope it's interesting to read. It does not ever constitute a solicitation to buy or sell any security. I have no plans to warn ahead of time when I will buy or sell a security--I usually do so with limit orders anyway, and especially cannot predict sales ahead of time.
Though I try always to be an adroit investor, I am always learning more. I hope you'll join me.
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Wednesday, November 21, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +19.6% My NAV change since start: +167.9%
Oil inventories were a surprise on the bullish side. Oil, however, was down a bit.
Gold was up, but silver was flat.
The last three days the metals have followed the vagaries of oil and the dollar very closely-and very wildly. It's been very volatile.
Copper futures tumbled, though inventories actually dropped. Maybe the same sort of psychological trading as happened in oil.
So far, so good. I'm keeping my positions for now.
Posted at 04:11 pm by brandonstarr
Friday, November 16, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +23.2% My NAV change since start: +169.4%
The metals followed oil down and then back up today. Overall my portfolio is down.
We'll see what happens next.
Posted at 01:11 pm by brandonstarr
Wednesday, November 14, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +24.1% My NAV change since start: +176.6%
The last few days, oil has definitely been the bully pushing everything else around.
The broad markets partly followed oil, but the dollar and precious metals were really influenced by the price of energy.
Overall, oil has been down, and so has my portfolio, but today was up along with oil, gold and silver. Oil dropped a couple of days ago on some noises from OPEC about increasing production, and oil rose today when those rumors were denied.
Posted at 01:29 pm by brandonstarr
Thursday, November 08, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +24.5% My NAV change since start: +194.7%
Didn't really watch markets today, didn't see a lot of movement.
Posted at 01:10 pm by brandonstarr
Wednesday, November 07, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +25.5% My NAV change since start: +194.8%
My portfolio was down today, but the market was, too.
Oil went down despite inventories declining because it was well within expectations. Silver and gold started higher. Silver ended breakeven and gold held onto gains.
Posted at 01:06 pm by brandonstarr
Tuesday, November 06, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +28.3% My NAV change since start: +199.9%
Another big up day for commodities.
The dollar was down. That provided a boost to all commodities, but wasn't the whole story. Oil was up also because fears of a bearish inventories report tomorrow. Gold and silver followed those two higher, especially silver, which seemed to play catch-up today.
Naturally, my portfolio was up, and up big. NAV has nearly tripled from the starting point.
Posted at 02:18 pm by brandonstarr
Monday, November 05, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +26.8% My NAV change since start: +183.1%
The market was down, I was up. Oil was down some. Gold finished higher, staying above $800. Silver was up a bit as well.
I couldn't find a whole lot of news today to talk about.
Posted at 04:11 pm by brandonstarr
Friday, November 02, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +27.4% My NAV change since start: +181.7%
The markets were volatile today.
Oil was up.
The jobs report was stronger than expected, at 166,000 jobs (slightly above the population growth of the country, so not fantastic, but expectations were way lower). Frankly the jobs number is so massaged--and so changed by later updates and adjustments--that it's a wonder the number receives as much attention as it does.
Between those two things, the worries were that the economy would slow. The market started down. Late in the session Citigroup announced an emergency weekend board meeting, which mollified the markets, especially the routed financials. The markets ended slightly up. Of course, liquidity has been injected into the system, too.
Gold and silver started flat but ended higher. My portfolio followed the commodities upward.
I'm still doing that Marketocracy faux portfolio. It's doing quite well. Check it out here. Lots of similiarities to my very very real portfolio here--lots of commodities stocks. But a broader mix of others too, since it's supposed to be more of a mutual fund, and not a sector fund either. As of now, if the M100 (made up of a rotating mix of the best-performing faux portfolios, and turned into a REAL mutual fund) included my fund, it would be doing better than it is! This is especially true of the long-term, as you can see by the chart.
Posted at 03:15 pm by brandonstarr
Thursday, November 01, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +27.3% My NAV change since start: +173.0%
The market was up and down the last couple of days.
Tuesday was a smaller, inverted version of Monday, where traders hedged what happened on Monday.
Wednesday was yet a smaller re-reversal of Tuesday.
Today, it all went down the tubes.
Oil was somewhat different. Due to an unexpectedly bullish inventories report, oil hit a new high near $96 on Wednesday, then went down a bit today.
Gold and silver pretty much followed the same pattern, except instead of tanking today they were only down slightly.
The market went down today because the economic numbers were troubling (Exxon reported poor profits due to low refining margins; the ISM numbers contracted to barely-above-growth levels for manufacturers) in part, but also because the Fed indicated that inflation was a concern, and therefore the interest rate reductions may end sooner than expected.
My portfolio went down a fair bit, though not as much as I expected given the gung-ho nature of options. It was held in check partly from the not-so-bad outing in commodities I expect.
Posted at 03:45 pm by brandonstarr
Monday, October 29, 2007
S&P500 change since start 1/17/05: +30.1% My NAV change since start: +178.3%
The market, oil, and precious metals were all up today. So was my portfolio.
Oil was up mostly on news of a storm that shut in a good portion of Mexico's production. Crude went to over $93.50, and gasoline is approaching its post-Katrina highs.
China let its currency move 0.3%, which is the most since China let its currency start to slide.
Between the oil and China news the dollar slid to further lows, and gold and silver benefitted.
I really don't know why the broad market went higher, though with a Fed meeting tomorrow and a possible rate cut I'd say it's higher on hopes of further easing.
Posted at 02:01 pm by brandonstarr